Why: The first pg-stop window counted an in-flight 200 at shutdown, and five writes on the timeline conversation returned 409 while a mock run held it. That measured the probe, not a proven database failure.
Evidence: go test ./... in tests/ops/drill_driver passed locally (SELF).
Impact: The outage clock starts 2s after stop or kill. RTO is five writes on new conversations. Idempotency replays only the window and retries 409 for up to 2 minutes. The Redis phase no longer uses local outside a function.
Refs: feature/u7-ops-drills
Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
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