diff --git a/cmd/artifact-vault/main.go b/cmd/artifact-vault/main.go
index 771a992d..63ce2467 100644
--- a/cmd/artifact-vault/main.go
+++ b/cmd/artifact-vault/main.go
@@ -32,9 +32,13 @@ func main() {
 				"full recover-plan / recover-apply / gc-preflight / destroy",
 				"server ingest hooks (OnFinalArtifact*)",
 				"durable fav event Register after separate approval",
+				"live staging → artifact → publication (each ≥7d observation)",
 			},
-			"source_branch": "feature/final-artifact-vault",
-			"note":          "do not enable FAV_DEGRADED_READ or fav consumer without approval",
+			"shadow_observe": true,
+			"would_stage":    false,
+			"would_publish":  false,
+			"source_branch":  "feature/final-artifact-vault",
+			"note":           "do not enable FAV_DEGRADED_READ or fav consumer without approval; subscriber shadow is read-only",
 		})
 	case "help", "-h", "--help":
 		usage()
diff --git a/internal/app/fav/subscriber.go b/internal/app/fav/subscriber.go
index 84c38715..1552c851 100644
--- a/internal/app/fav/subscriber.go
+++ b/internal/app/fav/subscriber.go
@@ -8,6 +8,8 @@ package fav
 import (
 	"context"
 	"fmt"
+	"os"
+	"strings"
 
 	"chat-agent-system/internal/artifactvault"
 	"chat-agent-system/internal/events"
@@ -24,6 +26,8 @@ type EventConsumer struct {
 	// Enabled must stay false by default. Even when true, events.Registry
 	// still rejects Register(ConsumerFAV) until the hard gate is lifted.
 	Enabled bool
+	// AllowDegradedRead must stay false. Shadow refuses if this is true.
+	AllowDegradedRead bool
 }
 
 // HandleLease refuses work while the subscriber is disabled (default).
@@ -44,3 +48,46 @@ func (c *EventConsumer) HandleLease(ctx context.Context, lease events.Lease, tx
 func DefaultEnabled() bool {
 	return false
 }
+
+// IntendedOutcome is a read-only shadow calculation. It must never be treated
+// as a write receipt; WouldStage/WouldPublish stay false in this slice.
+type IntendedOutcome struct {
+	EventName        string
+	AggregateType    string
+	AggregateID      string
+	LogicalResource  string
+	WouldStage       bool
+	WouldPublish     bool
+	DegradedReadUsed bool
+}
+
+// ObserveShadow computes the intended FAV outcome without business side effects.
+// FAV_DEGRADED_READ must stay false; live staging/artifact/publication is not opened.
+func (c *EventConsumer) ObserveShadow(lease events.Lease) (IntendedOutcome, error) {
+	out := IntendedOutcome{
+		EventName:       lease.EventName,
+		AggregateType:   lease.AggregateType,
+		AggregateID:     lease.AggregateID,
+		LogicalResource: strings.TrimSpace(lease.AggregateType) + ":" + strings.TrimSpace(lease.AggregateID),
+	}
+	if c == nil {
+		return out, fmt.Errorf("%w: fav", events.ErrDisabledConsumer)
+	}
+	if c.AllowDegradedRead || envTruthy("FAV_DEGRADED_READ") {
+		return out, fmt.Errorf("fav shadow refuses FAV_DEGRADED_READ")
+	}
+	out.WouldStage = false
+	out.WouldPublish = false
+	out.DegradedReadUsed = false
+	_ = c.Publisher // never Drain / Stage / Publish here
+	return out, nil
+}
+
+func envTruthy(key string) bool {
+	switch strings.ToLower(strings.TrimSpace(os.Getenv(key))) {
+	case "1", "true", "yes", "on":
+		return true
+	default:
+		return false
+	}
+}
diff --git a/internal/app/fav/subscriber_test.go b/internal/app/fav/subscriber_test.go
index a08485ca..69d35be9 100644
--- a/internal/app/fav/subscriber_test.go
+++ b/internal/app/fav/subscriber_test.go
@@ -33,3 +33,36 @@ func TestFavSubscriberStillDisabledWhenFlagOnWithoutRegistryApproval(t *testing.
 		t.Fatal("Registry.Register(fav) must remain fail-closed")
 	}
 }
+
+func TestFavSubscriberShadowComputesIntendedOutcomeWithoutWrites(t *testing.T) {
+	t.Setenv("FAV_DEGRADED_READ", "false")
+	t.Setenv("FAV_PUBLISHER_ENABLED", "false")
+	c := &fav.EventConsumer{Enabled: false, Env: "dev"}
+	out, err := c.ObserveShadow(events.Lease{
+		EventName: "document.finalized", AggregateType: "document", AggregateID: "doc_1",
+	})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	if out.WouldStage || out.WouldPublish || out.DegradedReadUsed {
+		t.Fatalf("shadow must not claim writes: %+v", out)
+	}
+	if out.LogicalResource != "document:doc_1" {
+		t.Fatalf("logical=%s", out.LogicalResource)
+	}
+	err = c.HandleLease(context.Background(), events.Lease{}, nil)
+	if !errors.Is(err, events.ErrDisabledConsumer) {
+		t.Fatalf("HandleLease still disabled: %v", err)
+	}
+
+	c.AllowDegradedRead = true
+	if _, err := c.ObserveShadow(events.Lease{}); err == nil {
+		t.Fatal("shadow must refuse degraded read")
+	}
+
+	c.AllowDegradedRead = false
+	t.Setenv("FAV_DEGRADED_READ", "true")
+	if _, err := c.ObserveShadow(events.Lease{AggregateType: "document", AggregateID: "doc_2"}); err == nil {
+		t.Fatal("shadow must refuse process env FAV_DEGRADED_READ")
+	}
+}
diff --git a/internal/server/vault.go b/internal/server/vault.go
index ef015028..d9c1d3ee 100644
--- a/internal/server/vault.go
+++ b/internal/server/vault.go
@@ -95,7 +95,11 @@ func (s *Server) handleVaultStatus(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
 		"degraded_read":      degraded,
 		"store_configured":   storeReady,
 		"subscriber_default": false,
-		"note":               "fav consumer remains OFF until separate approval; full FAV branch not merged",
+		"shadow_observe":     true,
+		"would_stage":        false,
+		"would_publish":      false,
+		"live_not_opened":    true,
+		"note":               "fav consumer remains OFF until separate approval; shadow computes intended outcome only; full FAV branch not merged",
 	})
 }
 
diff --git a/internal/server/vault_test.go b/internal/server/vault_test.go
index c6b7afe2..de02ed4d 100644
--- a/internal/server/vault_test.go
+++ b/internal/server/vault_test.go
@@ -57,6 +57,15 @@ func TestVaultStatusReportsOff(t *testing.T) {
 	if body["degraded_read"] != false {
 		t.Fatalf("degraded_read=%v", body["degraded_read"])
 	}
+	if body["shadow_observe"] != true {
+		t.Fatalf("shadow_observe=%v", body["shadow_observe"])
+	}
+	if body["would_stage"] != false || body["would_publish"] != false {
+		t.Fatalf("shadow must not claim writes: %+v", body)
+	}
+	if body["live_not_opened"] != true {
+		t.Fatalf("live_not_opened=%v", body["live_not_opened"])
+	}
 }
 
 func TestValidateIndependentVaultRejectsDataRoot(t *testing.T) {